Temperatures along the storm’s predicted track are close to 90F (32C), a prime setup for what’s known as rapid intensification.
Residents place a wooden board to protect a house in St. Petersburg, Florida, US, on Monday, Aug. 28, 2023. Tropical Storm Idalia strengthened near Cuba as it moves toward Florida’s west coast, threatening to strike as a major hurricane Wednesday with life-threatening rains and storm surge. , Bloomberg
That’s a prime setup for what’s known as rapid intensification, a phenomenon where a storm’s wind speed increases at least 35 mph within 24 hours. The US National Hurricane Center forecasts that Idalia will rapidly intensify between Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching Category 3 strength as it makes landfall.
Or as Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast, put it, the extra hot waters are essentially “rocket fuel.” That’s in part due to climate change, which “loads the dice and shifts the tails of distribution.”Research has shown that hurricane wind speeds can increase about 5% for every 1C increase in ocean temperature, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist at Yale Climate Connection.
Rapid intensification is difficult to forecast and can often take officials and residents by surprise, making planning and executing evacuations more difficult. But a growing body of research suggests that, by increasing ocean temperatures, climate change is making rapid-intensification events more common. One study published in Nature Communications this year found that rapid-intensification events worldwide tripled between 1980 and 2020 in offshore areas within 400 kilometers of coastline.
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