As soft-landing calls engulf Wall Street, traders are betting that a market calm will endure across investing strategies — despite the latest selloff in US stocks and bonds.
Even as Treasury yields rise on rekindled speculation the Federal Reserve isn’t done raising interest rates, closely watched gauges of volatility across markets are hovering near multi-month lows.
All of that raises the odds that price swings across assets will stay muted, despite September’s track record of being one of the worst months for the US stock market. Subdued stock swings have meant that traders betting on big moves during days with key macroeconomic events have been burned. Owning a 1-day “straddle” on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which tracks the benchmark stock index, has now been a losing trade through five straight macro events since July and through eight of the last nine, according to Christopher Jacobson of Susquehana International Group.
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