Despite some initial bleak economic projections, a recession might not happen after all, and a soft landing looks increasingly possible
Tu Nguyen is an economist and environmental, social and governance director with RSM Canada, based in Toronto.
Already, data is showing that Canada will avoid a recession this year altogether, a stunning development that few would have believed when the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates last year. The probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60 per cent, according to. That’s not much more than a coin flip, and is down from 75 per cent earlier this year. Moreover, that probability could decline further in the days ahead.
Inflation has dropped to around 3 per cent from the height of 8 per cent from just a year ago. Even core inflation measures, which exclude more volatile components like food and energy and have proven sticky, are set to decline. And while the return to the’s target inflation rate of 2 per cent will take time, the data is trending in the right direction.
Many newcomers are in their prime working years, which rejuvenates Canada’s aging work force and fills gaps in industries with worker shortages. In addition, immigration supports demand for all types of goods and services, from housing to consumer products to education.
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