The Unexpected Climate Impact of Russia's War in Ukraine

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The Unexpected Climate Impact of Russia's War in Ukraine
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By most measures, Russia's year-long war in Ukraine has been an unremitting tragedy. For the climate, it's a little different

Firefighters work to put out a fire at CHP power station hit by Russian missile on October 10, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine.here are many ways to measure the consequences of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began a year ago on Friday, Feb. 24, 2022. Most of them—7,200 Ukrainian civilians killed, 8 million forced to flee abroad, a global hunger crisisby surging food prices—paint an unremittingly tragic picture, for both Ukraine and the world.

Twelve months in, the war’s decidedly mixed carbon impact is coming into view. Inside Ukraine, experts have tracked vast amounts of the greenhouse gasses that have been unleashed by Vladimir Putin’s path of destruction. Outside of Ukraine, though, the opposite has happened. To many analysts’ surprise, Putin’s decision to squeeze gas exports to Europe last summer has pushed the region’s emissions down in recent months.

revised its pre-invasion estimates to predict a much sharper decline in demand for fossil fuels in 2035, citing countries’ post-war belief that renewables provide better energy security.

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