Consumers are expected to have spent more on gasoline and cars in March, likely pushing monthly retail sales higher after February's surprise decline.
div > div.group > p:first-child"> Economists expect retail sales rose by 0.9% for the month, but 0.7% when autos are not included, according to Refinitiv data.
The sales report includes a key component used by economists to calculate GDP growth, scheduled to be reported next Friday for the first quarter. The retail sales report is one of the last pieces of data. First-quarter GDP looked to be barely growing early on in the period, but has gone from sub-1% to just over 2% in a few weeks.
"We think the consumer is going to slow the pace of their spending this year," he said."Wage gains picked up a little bit year over year, but it's lackluster compared to the spending growth ... hourly earnings growth is lagging consumer spending growth. That dynamic hasn't changed. Consumers were really confident, spending a lot last year. They're probably going to have to tighten their belts.
"Core sales [excluding autos, gasoline and building materials] are probably up 0.3%. I think the data coming out of payment processors continued to be soft in March," he said."Consumers are really turning cautious since the end of the year."
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