Heard on the Street: China has far too many young men relative to women, and that distorts its economy in subtle and powerful ways
rein in housing pricesThere are many answers, but some researchers are increasingly focusing on one intriguing piece of the puzzle: China has far too many young men relative to women, and that distorts its economy in subtle and powerful ways. The combination of China’s now-abandoned one-child policy, originally implemented in the 1980s, and a traditional preference for male children has pushed China’s sex ratio continually higher.
between men and women. China has a smaller gender wage gap than most upper-middle-income countries, according to data from the World Economic Forum, but it is still substantial. In the last several years, researchers have started investigating what all this could mean—not just for male lonely hearts, but for the Chinese economy as a whole.
A 2017 analysis by economists including Shang-Jin Wei of Columbia, formerly chief economist of the Asian Development Bank, found that housing prices were significantly higher, relative to income, in Chinese cities where sex ratios were more skewed. The economists’ model suggests that the rising sex ratio might have accounted for more than 30% of the gain in real housing prices in major Chinese cities from 2003 to 2009.
The relentless pressure on young men and their families to buy housing is likely also related to China’s stubbornly high household savings rate and low consumption levels—particularly since that pressure is combined with a labor market that persistently undervalues female workers. Urban female employees made an average of 6,487 yuan monthly in 2020, according to recruitment website Zhipin, which was 75.9% of the average for men. In the U.S.
If men and families with sons are overrepresented in China’s population as a whole, earn most of the country’s income, and are under huge pressure to save to compete in the marriage market, it is perhaps unsurprising that China as a whole saves quite a lot of what it earns.
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