A research team discovered that pre-election polls contained approximately 50% more dubious votes compared to post-election polls.
Dubious votes, many possibly bought from troll farms, significantly affected informal political polls on X/ Twitter during the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections, according to a recent study.
This suggests that X/Twitter’s poll system reports biased public vote counts. On average, these questionable polls showed Donald Trump leading Joe Biden, 58% to 42%, during 2020.Social polls consistently projected a decisive victory for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. On average, the 2020 social polls predicted Trump would secure 58% of the vote, whereas he actually received 46.8%.
Moreover, the political leanings of those creating and responding to these social polls leaned right, and those who retweeted and liked them were over ten times more likely to identify as conservative.The issue lies in the discrepancy between how X/Twitter displays poll votes. There is a visible count for the public, accessible to anyone who interacts with or votes in the poll, and a private count available only to the poll’s author.
Donald Trump Elon Musk Joe Biden Twitter X
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