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WASHINGTON, Oct 30 - The World Bank said on Monday it expected global oil prices to average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter and fall to an average of $81 in 2023 as slowing growth eases demand, but warned that an escalation of the latest Middle East conflict could spike prices significantly higher.
The report outlines three risk scenarios based on historical episodes involving regional conflicts since the 1970s, with increasing severity and consequences. A"medium disruption" scenario -- roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003 -- would cut global oil supplies by 3 million to 5 million bpd, pushing prices to between $109 and $121 per barrel.
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