Regions that saw more immigration actually swung against Donald Trump in 2016, a new paper finds
DONALD TRUMP’S surprise victory in 2016 remains a mystery to observers of American politics. One common explanation has to do with demographics. Hostility towards immigrants was central to Mr Trump’s campaign platform. It is possible that working-class whites, a key source of support for Republicans, felt threatened by the country’s growing Hispanic population and were attracted to Mr Trump’s nationalistic rhetoric.
It would be natural to assume that areas which saw the biggest influxes of migrants in recent years also saw the biggest swings in Mr Trump’s favour in 2016. Yet a new working paper by Seth Hill, Daniel Hopkins and Gregory Huber, three political scientists, shows this is not so. By combining election data from 26,000 precincts in seven different states with demographic information from the census, Mr Hill and his colleagues were able to study the topic in more detail than ever before.
Past studies have nevertheless found that Americans’ attitudes to immigration are becoming more closely linked to their voting behaviour. Mr Hill and his colleagues reconcile their study with past literature by suggesting that fears of immigration stem more from popular narratives, rather than lived experiences. At the very least, this would explain why residents in the Midwest, who live in predominantly white communities, are so interested in erecting a wall some 1,500 miles away.
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