The public will no doubt be watching to see whether the polling industry discredits itself once again, writes StaufferVaughn. As Ian Fleming put it, once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, and the third time, it's enemy action.
bounce had nearly dissipated but remained slightly above pre-decision levels.
Cohn argued Democrats were riding high this summer thanks to not only the increased interest in abortion but falling gas prices and several Democratic legislative wins as well. Additionally, the prime-time Jan. 6 hearings and the FBI’s raid on Mar-a-Lago in August returned attention to former President Donald Trump, who remains rather unpopular among independents. These developments combined to dilute the enthusiastic generic congressional polls we’d seen in the spring.
And although both Democrats and Republicans are watching these polls closely, there’s an obvious question that must be asked: Can we really rely on these findings as an accurate read of voters’ positions? The answer after the 2016 and 2020 elections, in which pollsters disastrously underestimated Republican performance, is no.
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