As impulsive and erratic as the president may be, his campaign is relying on the same advantages that helped reelect George W. Bush and Barack Obama
in POLITICO last week, Trump will use highly targeted advertising in key states combined with the presidential podium to tout how the robust economy has helped African Americans. If the notion provokes eye rolls — how does someone despised by Democrats more than any president in generations expect to cut into Democrats’ most loyal constituency? — recall that this strategy does not need to work a lot in order to be pivotal at the margins.
Another possibility — suggested strongly by the Democrats' rout of Republicans in the 2018 midterms — is that the broader landscape of American politics has shifted decisively, in large measure because of revulsion by well-educated suburbanites, especially women, against Trump. If so, no amount of organization, money, or strategic skill is likely to turn the tide.
Probably of greater importance will be the effort to define, in sharply negative terms, the Democratic nominee. Trump aides don’t disguise that they’d welcome an opponent, like Sens. Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, who they can denounce as socialist or far too liberal.
Time and money not spent fighting for the nomination is a big advantage — and it may not matter much that this advantage is offset by bleak national polls. The Trump team says in background interviews that it is making targeted efforts in 17 states, but a much smaller number will get the lion’s share of attention.
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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