Annual glacial outburst floods on Juneau's Mendenhall River will continue for years to come. But forecasting the severity of those floods is proving to be an unsolvable problem. High above Juneau, the basin keeps growing.
Suicide Basin, the birthplace of Juneau’s annual glacial outburst floods, sits about two miles above the terminus of Mendenhall Glacier. On Aug. 5, 2023, nearly 13 billions gallons of water drained from the basin, triggering the most destructive glacial outburst flood in Juneau’s history
Before the flood, this valley had been filled to the brim with 13 billion gallons of water. Now it was empty. There were just a few gray-green pools of meltwater at the bottom. But dark high-water marks stained the rock face more than 100 feet up, evidence of the water that had accumulated here for months before emptying suddenly.
At the basin’s edge, Hood and research assistant Abby Watts assembled a tall, black tripod and laid out a miniature helipad, for a drone. The drone took off with a whir and flew to the far side of the basin. This year, those forecasts were off. The initial flood warning from the Weather Service predicted a peak flood stage of over 10 feet by Sunday morning, which would cause only minor flooding. The actual peak was nearly 15 feet — three feet higher than the river had ever flooded before.Figuring out the size and shape of the basin is complicated, because it’s changing all the time — one of its sides is made out of ice. Scientists believe the basin is growing.
Eran Hood holds a drone remote, with the Mendenhall Glacier in the background. The drone survey will help Hood and his team determine how changes in the glacial ice shapes flood potential in Juneau “Say you got X amount of water. If you let it out of a garden hose, it’s gonna take a long time to drain,” Neal said. “If you let it out of a firehose, it’d take a short time to drain it.”
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