The Fed will lean on incoming data between now and the start of their policy meeting later this month for signs of whether inflation continued to reemerge.
, comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell suggest the central bank is on a knife's edge and may abandon a shift to more gradual monetary tightening that had been in the works for months — if the data confirms re-accelerating economic activity.: "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell told lawmakers.
After Powell's comments, expectations that the Fed would hike by a half-point later this month jumped to 60% as of 11:50am ET, according to a tracker maintained by the CME. On Monday, that was 31%. Powell also acknowledged that recent data has come in "stronger than expected," which implies the ultimate level of rates "is likely to be higher than previously anticipated." Translation: The Fed will probably raise rates higher than the 5.1% implied by its last official forecasts in December.
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