THR's ScottFeinberg takes a look at how the explosion of international members of the Academy, who are largely unrepresented in the guilds, has changed the calculus for predictions
A byproduct of the Academy’s diversity push has been a huge increase in the number of its members who are based outside of America: up from 12 percent in 2015 to more than 25 percent, with 75 countries across six continents now represented. As a result of that — as much as, if not more so than, the Academy’s increase in diversity — I believe that the Oscars are now harder to predict, and that non-English-language films are more viable, than ever before.
The strongest hints about what the Academy will recognize with Oscar nominations and wins have long come from Hollywood’s guilds (e.g., SAG-AFTRA’s SAG
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