The White House predicted around 240,000 US deaths from COVID-19. Another study estimated 2.2 million. So why are the numbers so different?
At the end of March, the White House announced that it was predicting somewhere between 100,000 and 240,000 US deaths from COVID-19, a huge drop from a couple of weeks earlier, when the predictions were more like a couple million deaths. This led to a lot of confusion about where the White House's numbers came from and why the predictions shifted.
So, if you drop one infected person into a totally susceptible population, how many more cases are you gonna see?As you can probably imagine, R0 is pretty important for predicting how bad an outbreak will be. If R0 is less than one, over time you'll end up with fewer and fewer new cases and the disease will die out. If R0 is more than one, that's when you can start to run into some problems, depending on how severe the illness is.
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