Without a U.S. recession, the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise rates higher than anticipated, bringing back all the bad parts of 2022 for investors,...
Without a U.S. recession, the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise rates higher than anticipated, bringing back all the bad parts of 2022 for investors, warned TS Lombard strategists.
While a consensus forecast of 5% for the fed-funds rate by the end of 2023 has emerged, TS Lombard researchers think a recession that forced the Fed to cut its benchmark rate to around 3%, appears more likely. See: Will recession slam the stock market? Here are 3 ‘landing’ scenarios as Fed keeps up the inflation fight.
While the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP was still up 8.8% on the year through Wednesday, the S&P 500 SPX was up only 2.7% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA had given back all of its gains from earlier in the year, plus some, according to FactSet data.This comes as Wednesday’s higher Treasury yields look attractive to investors, with the 2-year Treasury rate TMUBMUSD02Y near 4.9% Wednesday, its highest since 2007, and the 10-year yield TMUBMUSD10Y topping 4%.
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