Who Democrats in early-primary states don’t want to see nominated. via FiveThirtyEight
among likely Iowa Democratic caucusgoers. To be sure, our approaches measure different things — the preferences of a few dozen party activists aren’t necessarily the same as those of several hundred caucus goers — but we have found some similar patterns.
For starters, one of the most notable features of this primary field is just how many people don’t want to see Sanders as the nominee even though he’s currently third in the national polls. Obviously Sanders is backed by an enthusiastic set of supporters, but we’ve also found that he has a substantial number of detractors in the party. In Masket’s August early-state activist interviews, 59 percent of activists said they; only Miramar, Florida, Mayor Wayne Messam and Rep.
The suggestion here is that Sanders is a factional candidate; a specific set of Democrats are very excited about him, but he has limited ability to expand that coalition into a broader base of support. For instance, in that Iowa State University/Civiqs poll, Sanders has struggled to win over new supporters — among those who didn’t back him in 2016, less than 1 percent want to see him become the nominee in 2020, and a third specifically dowant to see him nominated.
Another candidate with a substantial number of detractors is … Biden. That’s right, even though he still sits near the top of the polls, he was the No. 1 candidate who likely Democratic voters said they did not want to see as the nominee in that Iowa State University/Civiqs poll. Likewise, in Masket’s August early-state activist survey, 31 percent of those interviewed said they did not want to see Biden become the nominee.
It may be harder to think of Biden as a factional candidate than Sanders, given that Biden also enjoys significant support among a
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