A poll released this week of national Latino voters has Julián Castro with the 4th-highest favorability rating among 2020 Democratic candidates. - NBCLatino
The poll released Tuesday was"specifically designed to have a large and accurate sample of the Latino community, offered in English and Spanish, and weighted to match the correct census demographics," said Matt Barretto, founder and principle of Latino Decisions, which has done work for Democrats."No other poll in 2019 which has reported a Latino sub-sample has done that."
The party has said candidates can qualify for the first two primary debates if they register at least 1 percent in three national polls, which Castro's campaign said he has done. The Democratic Party has provided an alternative for debate qualification: at least 65,000 unique contributors and a minimum of 200 unique donors per state in at least 20 states. Puerto Rico will count as a state. Candidates can qualify with either threshold, but if more than 20 candidates qualify, they will have to meet the fundraising threshold, too.
In addition, Latino voters will have an early impact on the 2020 primary. Iowa and New Hampshire will hold the first caucus and primary, followed by Nevada, a state with heavy Latino population, on Feb. 22. California and Texas — the two states with the highest number of registered Latino voters in the country — are on March 3, Super Tuesday.
Bernard Fraga, an associate professor of political science at Indiana University, Bloomington, said it is way too early to be looking at polls as a predictive of who the Democratic nominee might be. A candidate having less than 1 percent or 2 percent is not statistically significant, he said.
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