With Labor Day over, and autumn just ahead, it is time to ask: What do we know at summer’s end about the politics of the 2020 presidential election that we did not know at the beginning?
If the standard is what do we absolutely, super-duper know for sure then the honest answer is: not much. The Democratic race features a front-runner, Joe Biden, whose support looks impressively durable in one light and acutely vulnerable in another .
So far the Democratic race has featured multiple candidates who credibly hoped to lay claim to that tradition—and drew lots of news media cheerleading for their efforts.
Otterbein, who has closely followed this year’s progressive currents, notes that one reason Warren and Sanders so far have mostly avoided confronting each other directly is that they don’t actually overlap that much on their core supporters. Warren, most notably, spends hours in crowds posing with admirers who want to pose for shots on their phones with her. So do many of her rivals.
In our conversation, we pretended to be in possession of a crystal ball that, without predicting the actual winner, could tell us about other major factors. What question would political reporters want to ask the crystal ball? The choices were illuminating of the larger 2020 landscape. “I think that is pretty much the race, right?” she noted. “Right now a big part of the reason that Joe Biden is ahead is because he’s just crushing every else among African-American voters. Pete is doing atrociously with black voters. Elizabeth Warren is not doing well…She’s kind of won a lot of high-profile black activists over but she’s not done well with the [broader] electorate there yet. Bernie is doing okay—he’s second usually, but he’s just way behind Biden.
And, you know, I think that’s why Elizabeth Warren has done well. She, I would argue, of the field, has the clearest message: It’s economic disparity, it’s corruption in government—the system is rigged.And then when you get to Joe Biden, you know, again, I think he actually needs to work on his overall message. But what he came out doing is he, more than anyone in the field, went directly at Trump.
That was a strategic move for them, and I think it’s interesting, hearing David say that, because it’s interesting that it’s actually hurting—potentially has hurt other candidates.And I should say for fairness that O’Rourke has recognized this problem very publicly, a month or so ago, and said he needs to do more national media, he needs—and he has. They’ve tried to become, I think, much more accessible in the way that Natasha was describing with Warren.
The other thing I’ll say, there is natural enthusiasm for him. Dave and I were at the Iowa Wing Ding Dinner recently, and you saw 22 candidates go up and speak. And for several of them, you could just sort of feel the ground move. Definitely for Elizabeth Warren, but Mayor Pete was another one. You could feel the enthusiasm in the room for him. So there’s something there, and I think that’s going to take him a little further than we think.
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