In the Virginia state Senate, the average winning margin was four points more Democratic than the average partisan lean. More, via FiveThirtyEight:
Includes only races where both a Democrat and a Republican were on the ballot. Does not include HD-80, because an independent received more than 10 percent of the vote. Results are unofficial and as of noon Eastern on Nov. 7.
FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a district votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Partisan leans do not incorporate the results of this year’s elections.
Any discussion about Virginia and partisan lean, though, should include the caveat that the state is well-educated and highly suburban — traits that might make it more likely to rebel against the Republican Party in the age of Donald Trump. Indeed, most of the few seats where Republicans did better than partisanship would suggest were in more rural areas. Meanwhile, districts Democrats flipped were largely suburban.
But that in and of itself is an important takeaway of the 2019 elections: Rural areas got redder, and urban and suburban ones got bluer — and not only in Virginia. Even for centrist Democrats like Mississippi gubernatorial candidate Jim Hood, the old, pre-Trump Democratic coalition has been replaced by one that increasingly relies on suburban voters to make up for losses among rural whites.
In Kentucky, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andy Beshear turned in a more impressive performance overall, turning a 9-point Democratic loss in the 2015 race into (
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