Joe Biden's candidacy is perplexing to analysts because he's clearly a front-runner (i.e. he leads in every poll), but he's not running away with the primary, analysis by Harry Enten
Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll of likely Democratic Iowa caucus-goers finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads the field with 28%, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at 19%, Sen. Kamala Harris of California at 11%, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 9% and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 8% round out the top five. This poll is the latest to find that Biden is ahead in Iowa, though with less than 30% of the vote.
At this point, however, he would need to start polling in the mid-30s to become a better than 50% proposition to win in Iowa. This weekend, Iowa's the place to beIf his polling falls, Biden's chance of winning drops precipitously. Incidentally, once a candidate is in the low 20s at this point, his or her chance of winning correlates nearly perfectly with where the candidate is polling.
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