Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group, says recession fears are overblown. He lays out three charts to support his contrarian view.
But don't take Paulsen's word for it. Let the charts he made do the talking. Below are three that he highlighted in a recent report, each of which makes a separate argument suggesting that ongoing recessionary fears are overblown.The chart below shows measures of balance sheet health for both the household and business sectors. Past recessions are also signified by vertical gray shading.
Paulsen highlights the US Consumer Confidence Index specifically. The gauge is at 95.5 right now, and he says it's dropped below 80 before eight of the past nine recessions. Needless to say, it has a long way to go. As you can see, the combined gauge is near its highest levels of the current recovery. Because of this, Paulsen stresses that the ongoing expansion is far from old. If anything, he thinks it's"middle-aged."
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