Russian President Putin has massed an estimated 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border, with the US and its NATO allies scrambling to deter an invasion. Here’s a look at what Putin might want from the standoff, and how he could be planning to get it.
Russia has grown in both capability and confidence, and the combination seems to have convinced Putin that he is in the best possible position to reassert his demands, Giles said.
“Most public discussion of Russia’s demands has missed the point that what Russia is asking for is not security guarantees for itself, but the removal of security guarantees for much of Europe,” he added. The growing number of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border and now in Belarus has been the “hypnotist’s watch” for the West, Giles said, accomplishing a Kremlin goal of “terrifying” the U.S. and its Western allies into opening negotiations with Russia on the future security of Europe — a topic that “ought to be off the table.”
Putin’s motivation also could include a desire to shore up his base at home — a popular military victory as a way to distract from domestic problems.“Putin would, no doubt, be happy to be able to present a foreign policy victory over the West, whether it is real or illusory, in the run-up to his reanointment as president in 2024,” Giles said.
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