What to look for when you look at voter turnout.
As the votes roll in from 14 states and one U.S. territory on Super Tuesday, anxious Democrats will be looking for signs everywhere: hints that their preferred candidate has the momentum, indications that the party won’t end up with a brokered convention, and proof that the party’s eventual candidate can beat Donald Trump.
Not much, according to several political scientists. While a radical groundswell of support for a candidate from a traditionally underrepresented demographic would be a promising sign, just about anything else would be relatively meaningless. In the primary, it’s not simple. As pundits and forecasters are quick to tell you, each state has its own dynamics. Race and age matter, as does the political history of a state. Iowa, where political participation is a proud tradition, will be different than, say, Mississippi, which typically has lower voter turnout. The candidate’s own regional identity will often be a factor, possibly creating a spike for the local candidate that might contradict other voting patterns.
In the first four contests of this election cycle, though, one consistent narrative has emerged. Nothing so far has pointed to a large, organic surge from young people that would shift the Democratic coalition, which could be a bad sign for Bernie Sanders, who has promised to significantly grow the base.
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