Welcome to the College Football Playoff Committee’s nightmare scenario:
There’s a 1 in 147 chance of all of these Week 14 outcomes happening according to FiveThirtyEight’s model.But we’re not done yet. The results above would set up the following Power Five conference championship matchups in Week 15: Baylor vs. Oklahoma for the Big 12, Georgia vs. LSU for the SEC, Ohio State vs. Minnesota for the Big Ten, Oregon vs. Utah for the Pac-12 and Clemson vs. Virginia Tech for the ACC..
needs to happen to give the Utes a 33 percent chance of making the playoff; an Oregon win would just take the entire conference out of contention — a victory for spite, but not for chaos. Andhas to happen, if simply because our model had no simulated outcomes in which the Tigers lost and the other scenarios above all happened.
According to our model, there is a 0.03 percent chance that all of those outcomes happen exactly as described. But if they do, we would be left with two locks in Clemson and Georgia … plus six other teams with exactly 33 percent playoff odds each!Predicted playoff probabilities if the following results occurred in Weeks 14 and 15
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