This week, we published our updated economic projections for the major economies and the Nordics, see Nordic Outlook – Return to Nordic growth, 5 March.
While political risks remain high, the global economy is performing better than feared. The Nordic economies are currently in stagnation or mild recession, but our forecasts point to gradual return to normal growth over the coming years, supported by lower interest rates, higher purchasing power and lower inflation. The ECB held interest rates unchanged as was expected.
On a more positive note, trade data on Thursday confirmed a significant rebound in both exports and imports from a year ago. These signals are in line with our view of a ‘muddling through’ in China and the gradual recovery of the global industrial cycle. Markets moved largely sideways this week. The biggest mover was gold that recorded a fresh all-time high above USD 2160 per troy ounce.
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