A new modeling study shows that the El Nino event, a huge blob of warm ocean water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that can change rainfall patterns around the globe, was present at least 250 million years in the past, and was often of greater magnitude than the oscillations we see today.
The El Niño event, a huge blob of warm ocean water in the tropical Pacific Ocean that can change rainfall patterns around the globe, isn't just a modern phenomenon.
"In each experiment, we see active El Niño Southern Oscillation, and it's almost all stronger than what we have now, some way stronger, some slightly stronger," said Shineng Hu, an assistant professor of climate dynamics in Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment. The simulation is so computationally intense that the researchers couldn't model each year continuously from 250 million years ago. Instead they did 10-million-year 'slices' -- 26 of them.
The study shows that the two most important variables in the magnitude of the oscillation historically appear to be the thermal structure of the ocean and"atmospheric noise" of ocean surface winds. "If we want to have a more reliable future projection, we need to understand past climates first," Hu said.
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