Wall Street put way too much stock in a peaceful China trade settlement
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China stocks have fallen below 5% in one trading session 24 times since January 2010, with most of those declines coming in 2015 and 2016. It fell below 5% once last year, and now today. China's been a raging bull all year as investors seemed to have given up on an escalation of trade tensions. Possible explanations for Trump's about-face include China balking on tech transfer in joint venture deals, and subsidies to favored industries, especially those within Xi's Made in China 2025 industrial policy. Rumor has it that China was reluctant to commit to a timeline on any sweeping economic reforms unless Washington lifted trade tariffs immediately, a total non-starter.
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