Investors are making the wrong bet on a recession — and it's going to cost them big time
Global growth is not as bad as it was in 2022. Europe was worried about keeping the heat on, the UK had a blowup with its pensions, and China was tightening its regulatory environment. Today, conditions are not great, but it'sEnergy inflation has slowed notably from last year. This will be reflected in household utility bills, which will support household incomes.
Second, increasing housing activity has brought prospective borrowers back into the market for mortgage loans, and banks are extending those loans — hardly the sign of a cataclysmic credit stoppage. Indeed, homebuilding stocks have been breaking out to fresh highs.Today, predicting a recession means relying on a select few signals to justify your call. I don't think the Wall Street aphorism about the bond market being"right" holds up this time.
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