Fidelity International’s Salman Ahmed is sticking by his call for a recession even as Wall Street ups wagers that the Federal Reserve has navigated the US economy toward a soft landing.
Expect the full effects of the central bank’s monetary policy tightening — and a downturn — to materialize next year following a wave of corporate debt refinancing over the next six months, according to Ahmed, the firm’s global head of macro and strategic asset allocation.
Higher debt-servicing costs tend to reduce the firepower companies have to invest and pay workers, other things being equal. Rich stock valuations and tight credit spreads are a sign that the coming downturn is not yet fully priced into markets. Ahmed’s glum forecast comes as many economists on Wall Street are scrapping their calls for a recession.
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