One thing is clear. Russia does not know what to do about its at least temporarily suspended revolutionary, Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Kremlin's uncertainty follows a stunning weekend in which Prigozhin's Wagner Group mercenary force charged toward Moscow before withdrawing to Belarus.
Top line: Prigozhin has shaken the core foundations of Vladimir Putin's authority. Prioritizing the perception of his unquestioned power as much as his effective practice of it, Putin knows he now appears vulnerable and his future uncertain. For just one example of how seismic Prigozhin's short-lived revolution was, consider that his forces easily secured the Ukraine-proximate city of Rostov-on-Don.
Russian state and state-aligned media are playing up the notion that Prigozhin might join his forces in Africa, or split Wagner between a Prigozhin faction and a faction subordinated to the Russian general staff . Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is absurdly suggesting that the rebellion won't affect Russia's relationship with African governments and warlords that have employed Wagner.
At the same time, Moscow's Kommersant newspaper reports that Prigozhin remains under FSB investigation for"insurrection." This is a not-so-subtle hint from Moscow that whatever technical deal has been reached to drop treason charges against him, Prigozhin will be a prospective target for the sharper edges of the Russian state. He'll have to be careful of old friends bearing drinks, for example.Still, the underlying problem for Putin is fourfold.
Put simply, while the immediate threat may have passed, Putin is facing the greatest crisis of his long premiership.
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