US Retail Sales Forecast: Correction following January surge – Previews by eight banks RetailSales UnitedStates Macroeconomics DollarIndex Banks
Retail Sales in the US are expected at -0.3% year-on-year vs. 3.0% in January. Meanwhile, ex-autos is expected at 0.2% YoY vs. 2.3% in January. The so-called control group used for GDP calculations is expected at -1.2% vs. 1.7% in January. “For February, we expect a partial correction , indicated, for example, by the figures already published on auto sales.”“We expect retail sales to fall 0.9% MoM in February, partly reversing a strong increase in January.
prices. All told, headline sales could have contracted 0.7%, erasing only a fraction of January’s gain. Spending on items other than vehicles could have fared a little better, retreating just 0.5%.” “We expect retail sales to give back some of the strength from Jan's 3% MoM surge, with the headline coming in flat. Declining auto sales will be a key culprit, while sales in gas stations are expected to offer support. Importantly, control group sales likely fell by 0.
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