The American economy is thought to have added 200,000 jobs in March — a more-than-respectable increase though one that would mark a slowdown from February’s vigorous gain of 275,000 and last year’s monthly average increase of 251,000.
FILE - Waitress Rachel Gurcik serves customers at the Gateway Diner in Westville, Pa. on Oct. 22, 2023. On Friday, April 5, 2024, the U.S. government issues its March jobs report.
The much higher borrowing costs for households and businesses that resulted from the Fed's rate hikes were widely expected to trigger a recession and cause a painful rise in unemployment. Yet to the surprise of just about everyone,Economists have been searching for an explanation for the economy’s resilience in the face of higher rates.
Though most industries added jobs in February, more than 70% of the hiring was in just three sectors: Health care and private education; leisure and hospitality; and government. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said she thinks the concentration in hiring likely continued in March, with those three industries accounting for perhaps 75% of added jobs.
Economists generally favor the establishment survey because it derives from a much larger sample size and is less volatile. Though the numbers from the two surveys usually converge over time, the recent disparity between them has been unusually large and persistent. Some economists say they think the household survey isn’t accurately capturing the surge in foreign-born workers and is therefore undercounting employment across the country.
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