The seven-day rolling average for daily new COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. has been trending upward since mid-November.
If the higher end of projections comes to pass, that would push total U.S. deaths from COVID-19 over 1 million by early spring.
But the notion that a generally less severe variant could still take the lives of thousands of people has been difficult for health experts to convey. The math of it — that a small percentage of a very high number of infections can yield a very high number of deaths — is difficult to visualize. “This is omicron driven,” Shea said of the coming wave of deaths. The combined models project 1.5 million Americans will be hospitalized and 191,000 will die from mid-December through mid-March. Taking into account the uncertainty in the models, U.S. deaths during the omicron wave could range from 58,000 to 305,000.
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