(Bloomberg) -- US retail sales exceeded all forecasts and industrial production strengthened last month, fresh evidence of a resilient American consumer...
-- US retail sales exceeded all forecasts and industrial production strengthened last month, fresh evidence of a resilient American consumer whose spending is helping stabilize manufacturing.Sales, unadjusted for inflation, increased 0.7% after upwardly revised advances in the prior two months, according to the Commerce Department. So-called control group sales — which are used to calculate spending on merchandise in the gross domestic product report — rose a better-than-expected 0.6%.
The advance in sales illustrates a consumer who is still delivering for the economy, seemingly undaunted by high prices. Spending is being fueled by a robust labor market and defying economists’ expectations of a slowdown on the back of a retreat in pandemic-related household savings. Resilient demand is helping to shore up the nation’s manufacturers. The Fed’s index of US industrial production rose in September to the highest level in nearly five years, led by strength in the mining and manufacturing sectors. Factory output last month was bolstered a pickup in the production of both consumer goods and construction supplies.
Morgan Stanley economists boosted their third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 4.9% on the back of Tuesday’s data. JPMorgan now sees 4.3% and Goldman Sachs lifted its estimate to 4%. “As long as businesses keep producing and hiring and consumers keep spending, it can be a bit of a virtuous cycle,” said Kayla Bruun, senior economist at Morning Consult LLC. “With all the headwinds from inflation and interest rates, you would think that that would break down, but it seems to be working.”
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