On Wednesday, at 12:15 GMT, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will release its employment report for August. The market consensus is for an increase in
US private payrolls of 195,000. If the reading aligns with the forecast, it would indicate the slowest growth in five months. However, the last four reports have shown numbers significantly above market consensus. In July, private employment rose by 324,000, surpassing the estimated 191,000.
More recently, on Tuesday, the JOLTS Job Openings report for July showed numbers below estimates, which further weighed on the US Dollar. Considering this, an ADP number below expectations could fuel the correction of the Greenback. The markets are anticipating a weakening trend in the labor market, and the upcoming ADP and other reports will be crucial in confirming these expectations. If there is a negative surprise in the data, with figures indicating more than just weakening – such as stagnation or a negative change in employment – it would likely hurt the US Dollar.
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