U.S. regulators committed last week to updating the 2020 vaccine recipes for this fall’s booster campaign with new formulas meant to defend against the ultra-contagious omicron subvariants.
Roseann Renouf, 77, has grown tired of the current generation of coronavirus shots. Having “never been one for a lot of vaccination,” she decided to forgo the latest round of boosters after watching vaccinated friends contract COVID-19, even though the doses offer a critical extra layer of protection.
Vaccine updates are becoming more urgent by the day, many scientists said. The most evasive forms of omicron yet, known as BA.4 and BA.5, appear to be driving a fresh surge of cases across much of the United States. The same subvariants have sent hospital admissions climbing in Britain, France, Portugal, Belgium and Israel.
“Omicron is so different that, to me, it seems pretty clear we’re starting to run out of ground in terms of how well these vaccines protect against symptomatic infections,” said Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunologist at the University of Arizona. “It’s very important that we update the shots.” In contrast, a vaccine targeting the original version of omicron is closer at hand: Moderna and Pfizer have already started making doses tailored to the original form of omicron, and Moderna said it could start supplying them this summer. Whether the benefits of a newer subvariant vaccine outweigh the drawbacks of having to wait longer depends on when exactly it arrives and how much havoc the virus wreaks before then, scientists said.
Instead, vaccine manufacturers have been studying volunteers’ blood samples in the lab to gauge their immune responses to a booster that is tailored to the first version of omicron. The subvariant boosters have been through lighter testing: Pfizer has studied only how they have affected antibody responses in mice.
“It probably helps a bit, the booster, but not to the extent of going to the trouble of getting it,” said Cherry Alena, a retired medical secretary in her 70s from Northern California, whose last COVID-19 vaccine was 16 months ago. “It’s not specifically formulated for the thing that’s going around.”
There are no certainties when it comes to forecasting the pathogen’s evolution. Come winter, the virus could take an unexpected turn away from the omicron branch of the evolutionary tree. And whereas flu viruses typically turn over in the course of years, new coronavirus variants can emerge and then start stampeding across the world within months.
The FDA’s decision to give its blessing to updated vaccines may have ripple effects across the globe, setting Moderna and Pfizer on the path to making those shots. But some countries may choose boosters targeting the earlier version of omicron because they will be ready sooner.
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