Who has the best chance to win the Super BowlI? 🏆 ESPN Analytics' Football Power Index breaks it down:
Now, the high rating doesn't mean the Jets' projections are all that strong. We're talking about a team with a 25% chance to win the division and a 4% shot at winning the Super Bowl. That's the schedule, strength of the division and conference talking. The Jets can simultaneously be a good team and have a tough road to success, which is what the FPI is suggesting.
This is the FPI's ninth season making preseason projections, and it is the first time the Jets have even a 1% chance to win the Super Bowl -- let alone 4% -- entering the season.Everyone knows measuring strength of schedule by the previous season's win percentage is deeply flawed. The Bengals are certainly a more formidable opponent than the Vikings, for example, even though Minnesota won more games last year.
It probably shouldn't be much of a surprise, as the other three teams in the AFC East all sit in the top nine of the FPI and the Patriots must face them all twice. Plus, New England squares off against both participants in last year's Super Bowl. At the other end of the spectrum are the Saints, who have the easiest slate in the NFL. New Orleans gets the benefit of playing in the weak NFC South and doesn't face a single team in the FPI's top 10 the entire season.
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