British economic output could shrink by as much as a quarter during the April-June period after a 5% fall in the first three months of the year, forecasters at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said on Thursday.
NIESR, a think tank which produces estimates of gross domestic product growth after the release of official data, said a 5% fall in first-quarter GDP was possible followed by a 15-25% decline in the second quarter if the coronavirus lockdown continues.
“COVID-19 and the global lockdown has thrust the economy into unknown territory where we could see GDP declining at a record quarterly rate. Nonetheless, instant and significant recovery remain a distinct possibility if the spread of the virus comes to halt quickly,” NIESR economist Kemar Whyte said.
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