As the amount of Arctic sea ice shrinks, accurate forecasting has become increasingly vital for industries from fishing and shipping to coastal management. For nearly 15 years, a team of scientists from UAF have been working to improve these forecasts.
ANCHORAGE, Alaska - As the amount of sea ice in the Arctic region shrinks, accurate forecasting has become increasingly vital for various industries from fishing and shipping to coastal management. Here in Alaska, and for nearly 15 years, a team of scientists from the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute have been working to improve these forecasts., and it started shortly after the then-record Arctic sea ice minimum in 2007.
“We realized that our forecasts do a good job when the observed is close to the trend, but if it’s far from the trend, we’re missing it,” Bhatt said. She named three factors that usually play a part in whether the observed ice matches what was forecast.“It could be mid-latitude weather that comes in in the summer,” she said. “And you get a storm, right, that can change the sea ice very quickly.”
John Walsh, chief scientist of the International Arctic Research Center at UAF and contributing member of the project team, is excited about getting these forecasts communicated in a manner that relates to individuals in their own backyard. He cites “land fast ice” or “shore ice” as an example.
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