The spotlight is again on what many investors consider a time-honored recession signal
Hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell helped push a closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to its deepest inversion since 1981 on Tuesday, once again putting a spotlight on what many investors consider a time-honored recession signal.
Shorter-dated yields soared, with the rate on the two-year note closing at a new high since mid-2007 at 5.015%. Yields on the 10-year Treasury notes, meanwhile, fell 1.5 basis points to 3.968%. “It’s not unusual to get a yield curve inversion but it is unusual to get one of this magnitude. We haven’t seen one like this in quite a while,” said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments.The curve plotting yields of three-month bills against those of 10-year notes, which had already inverted in intraday trading in July, turned negative in late October, closing inverted for the first time since early 2020.
For the last six recessions, a recession on average began six to 36 months after the curve inverted, she said.
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