A new study in Nature estimates that climate change will bring about sharp increases in the risk of flooding, with disadvantaged populations likely to bear the worst of the impact.
Researchers at the University of Bristol in Britain used federal weather and building data, housing records, and detailed local flood maps to forecast how climate change will affect flooding patterns across the United States, and pinpoint which communities will see the most change.
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, concludes that the annual cost of flooding will increase from its current estimated level of $32.1 billion to $40.6 billion by 2050, an increase of 26.4 percent.The worst flood risk is now shouldered by impoverished White communities, the researchers said. But their findings suggest those risks will increase roughly twice as fast in predominantly Black communities.
The damage will not be limited to coastal communities. Maps based on Nature modeling data show substantial increases in flooding risk concentrated in predominantly Black communities in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, as well as in Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia. They also show hotspots far inland, with landlocked states like West Virginia expected to bear significant increases.
“These impacts are so near-term that climate mitigation is futile, meaning we can only adapt to this increasing risk in areas currently developed,” the authors wrote.
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