Two roads for gold & both are bullish
The Fed is still tightening. The economy has picked up a bit, and so too, have inflation expectations.However, the market discounts and anticipates in advance.History shows us that a soft landing is impossible when trying to kill or decrease inflation significantly. Policymakers may be able to engineer a very temporary soft landing, but inflation is primed to reaccelerate in such a scenario.
The reacceleration of inflation in late 2023 or 2024 would be far more damaging to the economy than in 2021 and 2022, when the economy was recovering from a major shock. It would be more stagflationary and recessionary, which drove Gold in the 1970s.Under a hard landing scenario, the Fed hikes several more times, and after they pause, the stock market rolls over, and the economy follows suit.
Bond yields, which would peak before the Fed’s final hike, plummet lower as inflation expectations crash and the market discounts Fed easing. Gold would move towards a breakout shortly before the Fed begins easing. Technically, Gold remains in a bullish consolidation from a bird's eye view as it continues to hold above the 38% retracement from the 2016 to 2020 rebound. However, neither of those two aforementioned economic scenarios will appear imminent unless Gold moves back above $1950 and Gold vs. S&P 500 makes a higher high.The threat of lower prices and more time until a breakout move gives us another chance to buy the highest quality juniors with the most potential.
I focus on finding high-quality juniors with 500% upside potential over the next few years. To learn the stocks we own and intend to buy, with at least 5x upside potential in the coming bull market, consider learning about our premium service.Follow @KitcoNewsNOW [email protected] www.thedailygold.com
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