Aggressive rate increases are creating turbulence for Turkey’s high-flying stocks, as payouts of more than 40% on bank assets lure investors away.
One of the world’s top performers in local currency terms this year, up 70% since elections in May, the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index suddenly faces headwinds. Since its all-time high of Sept. 7, the gauge has fallen 5.6% in local-currency terms. Technical indicators suggest the downtrend could persist in the near-term.
The monetary policy committee is expected to raise its one-week repo rate to 30% from 25% when it meets on Thursday, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. “Gains attained so far with no significant correction in the BIST 100 might leave investors somewhat cautious, resulting in interim corrections,” said Burak Isyar, head of research at ICBC Turkey Investment. That’s offset by inflation-adjusted yields that dwarf most emerging-market peers, keeping Turkish assets attractive to foreign buyers, he said.Convergence-Divergence
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