Turkey Economy Set for Post-Pandemic Low as Recession Risks Loom

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Turkey Economy Set for Post-Pandemic Low as Recession Risks Loom
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Turkey’s economy probably slowed in the second quarter, with activity set to remain subdued for the rest of the year as officials seek to put growth on a more sustainable footing by raising interest rates.

Gross domestic product likely expanded 3.1% year-on-year, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts, the weakest level since the Covid-19 pandemic and down from 4% between January and March.

Some analysts believe that spending was enough to boost growth in year-on-year terms in the quarter. The estimates in the survey ranged from 1.2% to as high as 5.3%. The president’s new economic team, led by Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek and central bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, is trying to slow inflation of almost 50%, which has inflicted a severe cost-of-living crisis on Turks.

Leading indicators, including retail sales, suggested consumption remained strong in the second quarter, though industrial and export sectors slowed. Industrial production still shows limited recovery from February’s devastating earthquakes.“Disinflation and structural change in the economy will speed up,” he said in a post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

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