The fundamental pillars of Trump’s presidency — a hot economy, strong job growth and a rocking stock market — are all being smashed to splinters by the ravaging coronavirus
The impact of his chief legislative achievement — a big tax-cut bill heavily focused on corporations — is now moot after mostly delivering stock buybacks and dividend payments rather than a boom in corporate investment. Perhaps the big increase in corporate investment would have eventually materialized. But now we will never know.
“The economic and social underpinnings of the Trump era are giving way to the economic logic of pandemics,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at financial firm RSM U.S. “In a clear-eyed, sober assessment, if on November 3, 2020 there are more than 100,000 dead and the unemployment rate is at 15 percent, Trump is not going to get reelected. We could resurrect George Washington and Thomas Jefferson and I doubt they could survive that either.
“He can certainly win if this turns into a fast recovery and he can point to an improving trend and take credit for it,” said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. “And he can make the argument,, that ‘How do you fire a war-time president in the middle of the fight?’”Most economists suggest the economic hit from the coronavirus will be vastly higher in the April jobs report, due out on May 8.
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