The greatest divide with potential to define the 2024 GOP primary is class. Don’t expect the most educated Republicans to fall in love with Trump, or the “beer track” to abandon him. But any marked shifts among these groups could make the difference.
In addition to the Quinnipiac survey, the Monmouth poll released this week showed Trump leading the Florida governor by 1 point, erasing a 13-point, head-to-head disadvantage with DeSantis compared to the school’s February poll.
The Monmouth poll, however, still shows DeSantis with a large lead among voters with college degrees, 62 percent to 30 percent — similar to his advantage among this group last month. While the same class divide among Republicans exists as in 2016, polls suggest it’s even bigger now. In the 28 states where the TV networks commissioned entrance or exit polls in the 2016 caucuses and primaries, Trump was backed by 47 percent of voters without college degrees, compared to 35 percent of those with college degrees.
Similarly, Trump’s support is strongest now among the most conservative voters. In the Quinnipiac poll, he leads DeSantis among “very conservative” voters by 21 points, and in the Monmouth poll, it’s a 25-point advantage when surveyed as a head-to-head contest.
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