The stakes are high for Trump-Kim round two. Here are three theories on what Kim Jong Un might consider a win for North Korea:
While success for the Trump administration very much hinges on making progress in eliminating North Korea's nuclear weapons, what constitutes success for Pyongyang is much more nebulous.Secure a political declaration to end the Korean WarThe biggest prizes for Kim will be diplomatic as well as economic.Kim, like Trump, craves a big dramatic and historic moment in which the two leaders, foes for seven decades, stand side by side to declare a political end to the Korean War.
More importantly, Kim will be seeking economic concessions in return for rapprochement and promises to give up elements of his nuclear program. A lifting of crippling UN sanctions imposed on North Korea is a priority for Kim. Once sanctions are eased, South Korea in particular is poised to restart joint economic projects that could serve as an economic lifeline to Pyongyang as well as to rebuild North Korea's decaying infrastructure.
Kim gains a modest win by just showing up and repeating his performance at Singapore -- being seen to engage the United States as a nuclear power, gaining new opportunities for diplomacy and trade and raising the chance of sanctions relief from Beijing and Seoul. For Trump, there is only one path to success: Force Kim Jong Un to make the hard choice. Is he willing to accept a rudimentary arsenal in exchange for better security relationships and a better economy?
Unless real trust is built between the United States and North Korea, which could take decades if things go well, there is little that Washington can do to make its security guarantee to Pyongyang look credible and irreversible.
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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