“There is perhaps nothing as powerful, historically, in American politics as fear,” says cornellbelcher. “So on Election Day, will Americans be more fearful of these young people in the streets demanding justice, or of four more years of Donald Trump?”
Polls are always snapshots of current moods and trends, and not predictions of election results. Trump’s incompetent response to the coronavirus, to an economic collapse, and to the George Floyd protests has provided plenty of substantive reasons for his approval ratings to be tanking. Maybe the ongoing national trauma is finally showing key voters who Trump really is—or maybe the tumult increases the possibility that Biden’s polling surge is something of a bubble.
Yet other veteran Democratic operatives are allowing themselves to feel unusually optimistic. “As an incumbent president, you are carrying the onus of responsibility for current events,” says’s two presidential campaigns. “How do you repair any damage that they’re causing to your image? I’m not saying that any of the current polling is dispositive at this point, but the only reason to take it seriously is that Trump has no reparative skills. I mean, this is a real weakness.
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