Trump administration inflated Iran intelligence, U.S. officials say
On Sunday, the National Security Council announced that the U.S. was sending a carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Gulf in response to “troubling and escalatory” warnings from Iran –– an eye-popping move that raised fears of a potential military confrontation with Tehran. Justifying the move, anonymous government officials cited intelligence indicating Iran had crafted plans to use proxies to strike U.S. forces off the coast of Yemen and stationed in Iraq.
“I would characterize the current situation as shaping operations on both sides to tilt the field in preparation for a possible coming conflict,” continued the second source, who is also a U.S. government official. “The risk is a low-level proxy unit miscalculating and escalating things. We’re sending a message with this reaction to the intelligence, even though the threat might not be as imminent as portrayed.
The Daily Beast has not reviewed the intelligence itself, which is all but certain to be classified. That means that the characterization of the intel––both on the record and anonymously––is crucial. And in this case, there is not a consensus in intelligence and military circles on whether the administration’s interpretation, used to justify the deployment of an addition U.S. aircraft carrier and Air Force bomber task force to the Gulf, was accurate.
Flynn’s successor, H.R. McMaster, broke with the president on his uncompromising attitude towards the Islamic Republic, but with the appointment of John Bolton has come a more hawkish return to form. Sources told The Daily Beast that the administration’s decision to designate the Iranian IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization in April likely escalated the tensions that precipitated the showdown that unfurled over the weekend.
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